2004.01.15

8020運動

気がつけば2004年.皆様いかがお過ごしでしょうか.申し遅れましたがあけましておめでとうございます.今年もよろしくお願いします.2004年のWeblog世界には何が起こるのか,キーワードは「信頼性」になるような気がします.FOAF的な信頼ネットワークをはじめとして,昨年後半に立て続けにリリースされたサービスの数々(ビジネス・趣味を問わず)もとりあえずやってみたというレベルから,ちゃんと継続できるのか,望ましい挙動を維持できるのかが問われるようになる年かなと.同じことはsemblog.orgにもそのままあてはまるわけで,浮かれず騒がず着実にプロジェクトを進めていく所存です.

さて本題.前回のエントリの時期からこれまでに,今後の方向性を示すようなサービスが続々と出ている. BulkfeedsFeedBackReadOne(Web版) あたりが代表例.どれも年末年始に頻繁な更新がなされている.で,これらに共通するのが「検索」と「推薦」.彼の国ではすでに起こっていることであるけれども,日本でもWeblog(とRSS)は新たな時代に入ってきた徴であるとみることができる.どういうことか.これまではサイトが限られているので自分の読みたいサイトを指名して読んでいればよかったか,もしくは目新しいサイト・コンテンツを適当に配信してもらえるサービスを使っていればそれで済んだ.ところが,メディアとしての影響力が強くなってきたのと量的に爆発してきたのとで,自分の知らない情報(もしくは情報源)を知りたい,かといってわけのわからんコンテンツにまみれるのも嫌だという要求が出てくるようになってきた.その回答の一部がキーワードマッチングによる検索であり,別の一部が推薦ということになるのだろう.この流れには全く異存がない.glucoseでも最新バージョンにて要望の多かったキーワード登録が実装されたし,推薦についても近いうちに何らかのアナウンスをする.

キーワード検索についてはユーザが明示的にやることなのでとくに問題ない.仕組みがシンプルなので出てくるであろう結果についてもそんなにおかしなことにはならない.(ただしRSSスパムみたいなことがいずれ起こってくると単純マッチングでは意味をなさなくなり,エンジンを高度化しないといけなくなるのは普通の検索エンジンと同じ)一方,推薦はというと「クエリーフリー」という言葉が出てきているように,極力ユーザに負荷をかけずにユーザの欲しそうなコンテンツを提示する必要がある.こちらは仕組みも実装も大変.手法自体は人工知能の分野でさんざん研究されてきたからそれを使うとしても,種類がありすぎて何を採用すべきかがわからない.もう1つの問題は推薦の精度で,ユーザは何をどう提示されればうれしいのか,それを評価しにくいので推薦手法に気合いを入れてもなんというか報われない気分になるかもしれない.少し皮肉な言い方をすれば,Weblogを対象とするならば,Weblogのコンテンツはそもそもがいい加減なものなので,いい加減な手法で推薦してもそれなりに当たってしまう(満足が得られる)可能性がある.それを良しとするか悪しとするかは別として,そのあたりをもう少し厳密に突っ込んでいくのが研究テーマになると思われる.

さらに推薦関係でもう1つ考えないといけないことがあるとすれば,それはハレとケの問題というか,ルーチンワークと物見遊山の問題というか(適当),期待通りのコンテンツが提示される割合と,予想外の,がしかし新たな発見につながるようなコンテンツが提示される割合とのバランスではなかろうか.推薦とは主に後者を担うのだが,それが少なすぎるとありがたみがわかなくて,多すぎるとノイズとなってしっくりこない,ちょうどいい推薦の量と質をどうやって見つけるかが重要になる.いわゆる研究としての推薦アルゴリズムではこういう問題をあまり取り扱っておらず,もっぱら精度を追究するのであるが,何らかのプロダクトとして結実させようと思ったらこの問題は避けて通れない.直感的にはそのバランスは日常80:非日常20ぐらいになるのではと思う.さてじゃあこのバランスをどう実現するか?これは予想以上に面倒で大層な仕掛けが必要になるのだろうなあ,と予測しておく.そして,これを実現できた者だけが,(すぐそこに)来るべきMicrosoftが乗り込んでくる時代,Googleが乗り込んでくる時代に喰われないで生き延びられるのだろうなあ.

Posted by i2k at 2004.01.15 12:41 PM

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